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Permalink Reply by TROY on October 21, 2011 at 10:49pm Does anyone think maybe the "spectacular world event" is the death of Gaddafi? Would that count, or is that a stretch? It seems significant on a global scale, and fell exactly in the Nexus. If nothing else, it's a cool coincidence! On top of that, the resounding quote that is being attached to this is "this is what we can do when we do it together," regarding the lift of cruel tyranny and oppression.

Permalink Reply by Bobby on October 22, 2011 at 12:51am It's possible but to be honest, I was looking for something financial out of Europe that ripples here to our markets. Next week will be telling for that. Gaddafi was just a distraction. Not many are even affected or care about his demise.

Permalink Reply by TROY on October 22, 2011 at 12:57pm @Bobby, you wrote "Not many are even affected or care about his demise."
Whether this is the "spectacular event" or not, this is definitely not a minor event that doesn't affect many. It affects the entire world, actually. The rippling effects of a country sitting on a massive resource of power finally being returned to its people to join the world economy, in itself, is huge, let alone the rippling effects from the end of a major war and the people that may rise up from such oppression. Who knows what will come of it, and maybe it's not "spectacular," at least not by our definition, but maybe on a scale that is more macro-cosmic than micro, it is pretty amazing. Maybe.

Permalink Reply by Eric on October 22, 2011 at 1:52pm Actually, the real "show" in Libya is probably about to start. Most of the tribes had united against Gaddafi as the common enemy. Now that there's no common enemy and a power vacuum, we'll see if they can stick it out as a people or if they'll fall into infighting between them, which could become a new civil war.
It may be part of the nexus, perhaps, but the death itself seems to influence the local region most. I'm thinking if there is a "spectacular event" it would be much more widely seen and felt around the world, likely something that challenges a dominant paradigm. After all, spectacular events are generally so because they are big and surprising.

Permalink Reply by Geraldine B on October 22, 2011 at 5:37pm One of the problems with "revolution" is that the reasons or causes vary. If one reads the Libyan history and Gaddafi's role in it -- he was quite the trailblazer at one time. His historical interaction with women has been far more modern than anyone else in the Islamic world. His negative poles and ego really were his Achilles heel, though -- he wanted to be a much bigger leader/player in Med/Middle Eastern politics that he ever was able to convince others of, which caused him to make several disastrous missteps. He was not the conventional despot that we're used to reading about. But, I agree with Eric. I've been doing a lot of reading up on tribal politics throughout the entire region from the west coast of Africa to Afghanistan and on into Central Asia. Tribal politics is something the west knows close to nothing about and has even less understanding of how it functions. Few of the countries that were created post WWI throughout that entire arc have a genuine national identity -- Egypt probably has the strongest one due to its history. Country boundaries are part of the Colonial European mindset and have yet to be truly adopted by most of the peoples affected by them. Most of the cultures that are part of this arc have been continuously part of both empires and local governance, based on Tribes for millennium. But, as far as I can tell, most of Europe is little different and most of those countries that have been warring for an equally long period didn't have genuine national identities, either.
Expanding and collapsing empires has been the norm for most of our recorded history. The US is one of the bigger longer-termed experiments in that it didn't have a true cultural identity based on the past. China is the longest lasting true "country" within an empire. Interesting times for sure.
Permalink Reply by Leela on October 22, 2011 at 8:50pm Egypt has a very strong national identity, and modern Egyptians are, in my experience, very attached to their ancient history. This history also shows itself still in the language, in textile designs, in certain practices that predate Islam and even monotheism in some cases. It's also been the cultural powerhouse of the Arab world for a long time, though that may be on the wane, I don't know. What's funny is that that national identity is as much a construct as it is a reality. It is real, of course. But Egypt contains many ethnicities and cultures - Berber in the Siwa Oasis, Delta people, Bedouin in the Sinai, Saidi people in Upper Egypt (who are the ones who really look Pharaonic), Nubians (who really bore the brunt of a lot of stuff, losing some of their traditional culture when the High Dam was built), and Beja in the Southeast, who are more related to Eritreans than Arabs. Perhaps that strong streak of nationalism that ran through the place in the 20th century has kept them all from tribal warfare. That, and maybe the fact that they do have a really strong urban culture. And that they've been a tourist hotspot for millennia, and I'm sure no one wants to fuck that up.
Qaddafi may not have been your "average despot" to begin with, but ultimately, he exhibited the same pathology as any other modern dictator, down to the last stitch on his epaulets: a legacy of torture, oppression, and nepotism, bizarre and paranoid behavior, and a cult of personality that gutted the entire culture and left no room for anyone else to achieve even small things. In the end he was bonkers, as well. And his end was that of many before him: undignified and small, a corpse for triumphant citizens to drag through the streets and spit on. That's what happens to people like him if they don't kill themselves first, unless, like Mao, they created a system to outlast them. Mussolini, Ceaucescu, Saddam. I don't think his death is the large event being discussed here. I think it's too much of a piece with other situations like it. But, maybe he does represent a certain kind of dictatorship that is becoming outmoded. He's not the last of his kind, though.
There's no way of telling what the recent revolutions in the Arab world will bring, but they are very exciting. When I went to Egypt in 2009, it felt like a place hurting for change, though Egyptians are too polite to talk about that kind of thing in public to a foreigner. Sadly, I don't think the fundamentals have changed; when you're talking about a culture that old, it won't change in months. It will take decades, or more, I am sure. Now sectarian battles are breaking out. A lot of people are scared of the Muslim Brotherhood, and others are sure that they're salvation. And the same military as before is in power. No telling. I think of the place often and hold it close in my heart. I was disheartened by how obviously messed up it was - it was so clearly a country full of great people, that needs some help and some care, not a kleptocracy.
Still, it's really good that people have tasted their own power. That entire region was and is hurting for it. So many disenfranchised people, so much inequality, so many problems.
Big events...well, who mentioned popcorn? I like mine with curry.
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